Decision replay
complete
Decision
cmqzrx0l813jtmk10fs28lm4o
Strategy: high-prob-bonds v1.0.0
Action: skip · status created · mode paper
paramHash: d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b
configHash: d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b
Rationale: Buy Paraguay @ 0.9750 | confidence 0.9750 | fee/sh 0.004875 | slippage/sh 0.005000 | net EV -0.050641 USD | skip: confidence < 0.9850
Reason code: LOW_CONFIDENCE
Resolved config snapshot
{
"priceMax": "0.98500000",
"priceMin": "0.94000000",
"maxSpread": "0.02000000",
"minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000",
"orderSizeUsd": "5.00000000",
"takerFeeRate": "0.00500000",
"minConfidence": "0.98500000",
"minLiquidityUsd": "500.00000000",
"minVolume24hUsd": "100.00000000",
"maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30,
"maxTimeToResolutionHours": 168,
"allowSubjectiveCategories": false
}Decision inputs
{
"shares": "5.12820513",
"buyPrice": "0.97500000",
"netEvUsd": "-0.05064103",
"confidence": "0.97500000",
"feePerShareUsd": "0.00487500",
"grossReturnIfWin": "0.02500000",
"netEvPerShareUsd": "-0.00987500",
"slippagePerShareUsd": "0.00500000",
"expectedValuePerShare": "0.00000000"
}Opportunity
{
"id": "cmqzrx0kz13jqmk10h2to93r1",
"strategyId": "high-prob-bonds",
"strategyVersion": "1.0.0",
"marketId": "0x609e55cfad2bea2c42ab7f2524cd23a532d418a4cb55ef53312ca362d8048f7e",
"status": "decided",
"side": "buy",
"outcome": "Paraguay",
"price": "0.975",
"sizeUsd": "5",
"estimatedGrossEv": null,
"estimatedNetEv": null,
"confidence": "0.975",
"liquidityUsd": "68148.82149",
"spread": "0.01",
"reason": null,
"rejectionStage": null,
"rejectionCode": null,
"rejectionReason": null,
"features": {
"price": "0.97500000",
"binary": true,
"spread": "0.01000000",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"confidence": "0.97500000",
"subjective": false,
"liquidityUsd": "68148.82149000",
"volume24hUsd": "462774.63616200",
"resolutionRulesClear": true,
"timeToResolutionHours": -1.709536388888889
},
"configSnapshot": null,
"configSnapshotHash": "d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b",
"marketSnapshotId": "cmqzrx00j13c6mk104stw4oar",
"rawSnapshotId": null,
"raw": null,
"foundAt": "2026-06-29T22:12:37.043Z",
"expiresAt": "2026-06-29T20:30:00.000Z",
"createdAt": "2026-06-29T22:12:37.043Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-06-29T22:12:37.069Z"
}Market snapshot
{
"id": "cmqzrx00j13c6mk104stw4oar",
"marketId": "0x609e55cfad2bea2c42ab7f2524cd23a532d418a4cb55ef53312ca362d8048f7e",
"bestBid": "0.02",
"bestAsk": "0.975",
"midPrice": "0.025",
"spread": "0.01",
"liquidityUsd": "68148.82149",
"volume24hUsd": "462774.636162",
"orderBook": null,
"sourceRawId": null,
"capturedAt": "2026-06-29T22:12:34.331Z"
}Risk checks
0 check record(s)
Orders & trades
No orders (decision not executed).
Related events
Jun 29, 2026, 10:12:37 PMDecisionCreated