Decision replay
complete
Decision
cmqzsd2hz187qmk108czxvebs
Strategy: high-prob-bonds v1.0.0
Action: skip · status created · mode paper
paramHash: d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b
configHash: d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b
Rationale: Buy Under @ 0.9650 | confidence 0.9650 | fee/sh 0.004825 | slippage/sh 0.005000 | net EV -0.050907 USD | skip: confidence < 0.9850
Reason code: LOW_CONFIDENCE
Resolved config snapshot
{
"priceMax": "0.98500000",
"priceMin": "0.94000000",
"maxSpread": "0.02000000",
"minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000",
"orderSizeUsd": "5.00000000",
"takerFeeRate": "0.00500000",
"minConfidence": "0.98500000",
"minLiquidityUsd": "500.00000000",
"minVolume24hUsd": "100.00000000",
"maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30,
"maxTimeToResolutionHours": 168,
"allowSubjectiveCategories": false
}Decision inputs
{
"shares": "5.18134715",
"buyPrice": "0.96500000",
"netEvUsd": "-0.05090674",
"confidence": "0.96500000",
"feePerShareUsd": "0.00482500",
"grossReturnIfWin": "0.03500000",
"netEvPerShareUsd": "-0.00982500",
"slippagePerShareUsd": "0.00500000",
"expectedValuePerShare": "0.00000000"
}Opportunity
{
"id": "cmqzsd2hv187nmk10fgdq46gz",
"strategyId": "high-prob-bonds",
"strategyVersion": "1.0.0",
"marketId": "0xd57b2721f6c32de7d06e1213a74cb6be5299e1fe3e13ee8f547877c338743c4c",
"status": "decided",
"side": "buy",
"outcome": "Under",
"price": "0.965",
"sizeUsd": "5",
"estimatedGrossEv": null,
"estimatedNetEv": null,
"confidence": "0.965",
"liquidityUsd": "79968.062",
"spread": "0.01",
"reason": null,
"rejectionStage": null,
"rejectionCode": null,
"rejectionReason": null,
"features": {
"price": "0.96500000",
"binary": true,
"spread": "0.01000000",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"confidence": "0.96500000",
"subjective": false,
"liquidityUsd": "79968.06200000",
"volume24hUsd": "999558.89480700",
"resolutionRulesClear": true,
"timeToResolutionHours": -1.917792222222222
},
"configSnapshot": null,
"configSnapshotHash": "d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b",
"marketSnapshotId": "cmqzsd1uy180tmk10nu7mhck4",
"rawSnapshotId": null,
"raw": null,
"foundAt": "2026-06-29T22:25:06.019Z",
"expiresAt": "2026-06-29T20:30:00.000Z",
"createdAt": "2026-06-29T22:25:06.019Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-06-29T22:25:06.028Z"
}Market snapshot
{
"id": "cmqzsd1uy180tmk10nu7mhck4",
"marketId": "0xd57b2721f6c32de7d06e1213a74cb6be5299e1fe3e13ee8f547877c338743c4c",
"bestBid": "0.03",
"bestAsk": "0.965",
"midPrice": "0.035",
"spread": "0.01",
"liquidityUsd": "79968.062",
"volume24hUsd": "999558.894807",
"orderBook": null,
"sourceRawId": null,
"capturedAt": "2026-06-29T22:25:04.052Z"
}Risk checks
0 check record(s)
Orders & trades
No orders (decision not executed).
Related events
Jun 29, 2026, 10:25:06 PMDecisionCreated