Decision replay
complete
Decision
cmqzsd2k0188wmk10uj9jt36v
Strategy: high-prob-bonds v1.0.0
Action: skip · status created · mode paper
paramHash: d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b
configHash: d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b
Rationale: Buy No @ 0.9705 | confidence 0.9705 | fee/sh 0.004853 | slippage/sh 0.009500 | net EV -0.073944 USD | skip: confidence < 0.9850
Reason code: LOW_CONFIDENCE
Resolved config snapshot
{
"priceMax": "0.98500000",
"priceMin": "0.94000000",
"maxSpread": "0.02000000",
"minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000",
"orderSizeUsd": "5.00000000",
"takerFeeRate": "0.00500000",
"minConfidence": "0.98500000",
"minLiquidityUsd": "500.00000000",
"minVolume24hUsd": "100.00000000",
"maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30,
"maxTimeToResolutionHours": 168,
"allowSubjectiveCategories": false
}Decision inputs
{
"shares": "5.15198351",
"buyPrice": "0.97050000",
"netEvUsd": "-0.07394384",
"confidence": "0.97050000",
"feePerShareUsd": "0.00485250",
"grossReturnIfWin": "0.02950000",
"netEvPerShareUsd": "-0.01435250",
"slippagePerShareUsd": "0.00950000",
"expectedValuePerShare": "0.00000000"
}Opportunity
{
"id": "cmqzsd2jw188tmk109n99njkh",
"strategyId": "high-prob-bonds",
"strategyVersion": "1.0.0",
"marketId": "0xd0599a4f3b64090250f1e9b402c0d62efefa70dafd8a0f8a2a6ca84cfefdbb16",
"status": "decided",
"side": "buy",
"outcome": "No",
"price": "0.9705",
"sizeUsd": "5",
"estimatedGrossEv": null,
"estimatedNetEv": null,
"confidence": "0.9705",
"liquidityUsd": "25808.58619",
"spread": "0.019",
"reason": null,
"rejectionStage": null,
"rejectionCode": null,
"rejectionReason": null,
"features": {
"price": "0.97050000",
"binary": true,
"spread": "0.01900000",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"confidence": "0.97050000",
"subjective": false,
"liquidityUsd": "25808.58619000",
"volume24hUsd": "618076.62853900",
"resolutionRulesClear": true,
"timeToResolutionHours": -1.917792222222222
},
"configSnapshot": null,
"configSnapshotHash": "d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b",
"marketSnapshotId": "cmqzsd1x1181jmk10pum60fzf",
"rawSnapshotId": null,
"raw": null,
"foundAt": "2026-06-29T22:25:06.091Z",
"expiresAt": "2026-06-29T20:30:00.000Z",
"createdAt": "2026-06-29T22:25:06.091Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-06-29T22:25:06.106Z"
}Market snapshot
{
"id": "cmqzsd1x1181jmk10pum60fzf",
"marketId": "0xd0599a4f3b64090250f1e9b402c0d62efefa70dafd8a0f8a2a6ca84cfefdbb16",
"bestBid": "0.02",
"bestAsk": "0.9705",
"midPrice": "0.0295",
"spread": "0.019",
"liquidityUsd": "25808.58619",
"volume24hUsd": "618076.628539",
"orderBook": null,
"sourceRawId": null,
"capturedAt": "2026-06-29T22:25:04.052Z"
}Risk checks
0 check record(s)
Orders & trades
No orders (decision not executed).
Related events
Jun 29, 2026, 10:25:06 PMDecisionCreated