Decision replay
complete
Decision
cmqzsfq3018xgmk106yp2vlfp
Strategy: high-prob-bonds v1.0.0
Action: skip · status created · mode paper
paramHash: d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b
configHash: d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b
Rationale: Buy Paraguay @ 0.9760 | confidence 0.9760 | fee/sh 0.004880 | slippage/sh 0.004000 | net EV -0.045492 USD | skip: confidence < 0.9850
Reason code: LOW_CONFIDENCE
Resolved config snapshot
{
"priceMax": "0.98500000",
"priceMin": "0.94000000",
"maxSpread": "0.02000000",
"minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000",
"orderSizeUsd": "5.00000000",
"takerFeeRate": "0.00500000",
"minConfidence": "0.98500000",
"minLiquidityUsd": "500.00000000",
"minVolume24hUsd": "100.00000000",
"maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30,
"maxTimeToResolutionHours": 168,
"allowSubjectiveCategories": false
}Decision inputs
{
"shares": "5.12295082",
"buyPrice": "0.97600000",
"netEvUsd": "-0.04549180",
"confidence": "0.97600000",
"feePerShareUsd": "0.00488000",
"grossReturnIfWin": "0.02400000",
"netEvPerShareUsd": "-0.00888000",
"slippagePerShareUsd": "0.00400000",
"expectedValuePerShare": "0.00000000"
}Opportunity
{
"id": "cmqzsfq2q18xdmk10h6rff8ro",
"strategyId": "high-prob-bonds",
"strategyVersion": "1.0.0",
"marketId": "0xdc3c530b790e9477a068cb64c8d9a7222b91f164aa055176bd2b19abd299e820",
"status": "decided",
"side": "buy",
"outcome": "Paraguay",
"price": "0.976",
"sizeUsd": "5",
"estimatedGrossEv": null,
"estimatedNetEv": null,
"confidence": "0.976",
"liquidityUsd": "128373.11537",
"spread": "0.008",
"reason": null,
"rejectionStage": null,
"rejectionCode": null,
"rejectionReason": null,
"features": {
"price": "0.97600000",
"binary": true,
"spread": "0.00800000",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"confidence": "0.97600000",
"subjective": false,
"liquidityUsd": "128373.11537000",
"volume24hUsd": "5587497.38517306",
"resolutionRulesClear": true,
"timeToResolutionHours": -1.952253888888889
},
"configSnapshot": null,
"configSnapshotHash": "d4ed00c28c39931302fea8e14cb7b9f98711545519ae83d9b8b38df45317c34b",
"marketSnapshotId": "cmqzsfpl018rnmk10oeuocgf1",
"rawSnapshotId": null,
"raw": null,
"foundAt": "2026-06-29T22:27:09.889Z",
"expiresAt": "2026-06-29T20:30:00.000Z",
"createdAt": "2026-06-29T22:27:09.889Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-06-29T22:27:09.911Z"
}Market snapshot
{
"id": "cmqzsfpl018rnmk10oeuocgf1",
"marketId": "0xdc3c530b790e9477a068cb64c8d9a7222b91f164aa055176bd2b19abd299e820",
"bestBid": "0.02",
"bestAsk": "0.976",
"midPrice": "0.024",
"spread": "0.008",
"liquidityUsd": "128373.11537",
"volume24hUsd": "5587497.38517306",
"orderBook": null,
"sourceRawId": null,
"capturedAt": "2026-06-29T22:27:08.114Z"
}Risk checks
0 check record(s)
Orders & trades
No orders (decision not executed).
Related events
Jun 29, 2026, 10:27:09 PMDecisionCreated